Myanmar’s military junta, which seized power on February 1, 2021, is struggling to hold the country together. Large parts remain beyond its control, with ethnic armed groups and resistance forces pushing back. Despite announcing elections to legitimize its rule, the deepening humanitarian crisis and mass displacement make a fair vote impossible. ASEAN has called for peace instead, but with China’s backing, the junta is pushing ahead to protect its own grip on power. China, focused on securing its Belt and Road investments, continues to prop up the regime despite its growing unpopularity. Unlike past uprisings, today’s resistance is nationwide, uniting ethnic minorities and the Bamar heartland against military rule. As Myanmar remains fractured and unstable, the consequences are being felt far beyond its borders, including in Bangladesh.
For Bangladesh, Myanmar’s prolonged instability is a dual challenge, a security risk and a humanitarian burden. Since 2017, Bangladesh has been hosting nearly one million Rohingya refugees, creating economic, social, and security strains. The worsening situation in Myanmar has made Rohingya repatriation increasingly uncertain. Bangladesh’s past engagements with Myanmar, primarily through bilateral negotiations and China-mediated talks, have failed to yield tangible results. The current fragmentation of power in Myanmar further complicates repatriation efforts, as different factions within Myanmar may hold differing views on the Rohingya issue. The military regime has repeatedly demonstrated reluctance in taking back the Rohingya, and with ethnic insurgents gaining power in many regions, it is unclear whether a future federal Myanmar would recognize Rohingya citizenship or continue to exclude them from national identity.
The rise of the Arakan Army, along with other powerful ethnic militias like the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), has fundamentally altered Myanmar’s internal power structure. The Arakan Army, which controls almost the entire border with Bangladesh, has replaced the junta as the dominant force in Rakhine State. This development directly affects Bangladesh, raising concerns over cross-border instability. The complete loss of border control by the junta has left Bangladesh facing unpredictable security risks. The potential spillover of conflict into Bangladesh, increased arms smuggling, and the risk of militant activities in Rohingya camps all present pressing concerns. The presence of heavily armed insurgent groups on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border increases the likelihood of illicit activities, including drug trafficking, human smuggling, and extremist infiltration. If the current trajectory continues, these security threats will only become more pronounced.
Recent incidents, such as the attack on an under-construction Bangladesh Air Force base near Cox’s Bazar Airport, highlight the direct security threats stemming from Myanmar’s instability. The attack signifies the increasing volatility of the border region and the necessity for Bangladesh to formulate a robust security policy. As long as Myanmar remains unstable, Bangladesh will continue to face spillover threats, necessitating immediate and strategic responses to safeguard national security.
Given the shifting power dynamics, Bangladesh may need to rethink its diplomatic strategy. Engaging with the Arakan Army and other resistance forces, while sensitive, could be crucial in securing assurances that their controlled areas will not be used for activities that threaten Bangladesh’s security. However, such engagement must be handled cautiously to avoid perceptions of interference in Myanmar’s sovereignty. One potential approach is indirect engagement through regional actors such as ASEAN, leveraging back-channel diplomacy and humanitarian negotiations. Another approach could involve working through international organizations to mediate discussions with the Arakan Army to establish border security agreements without appearing to violate Myanmar’s sovereignty.
Furthermore, with Myanmar’s military losing control over large portions of its territory, it is crucial for Bangladesh to reassess its border security policies. Enhancing military surveillance, increasing intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and maintaining diplomatic pressure on Myanmar will be critical in ensuring that the crisis does not spill over into Bangladesh’s territory. The government must also take proactive steps in strengthening internal security, particularly in the Rohingya camps, to prevent external actors from exploiting the situation for their own interests.
Beyond security concerns, Bangladesh must also internationalize the Rohingya issue beyond bilateral negotiations with Myanmar. Engaging with ASEAN, the United Nations, and key global actors can help build pressure on Myanmar to take concrete steps toward repatriation. ASEAN’s evolving stance on Myanmar suggests a window of opportunity for Bangladesh to advocate for a regional resolution. Given the humanitarian and security dimensions of the crisis, Bangladesh must leverage multilateral diplomacy to secure commitments for Rohingya repatriation and broader international involvement in resolving Myanmar’s instability.
If Myanmar transitions toward federalism, Bangladesh must be prepared to address the geopolitical and financial risks associated with such a shift. Federalism could lead to a decentralized political landscape, where different regions have varying levels of autonomy and governance. Bangladesh needs to evaluate how such a transformation could impact future Rohingya repatriation efforts, trade relations, and security coordination with Myanmar’s new power centers. While a federal Myanmar could theoretically offer a more inclusive political framework, there is no guarantee that Rohingya rights will be recognized under such a system. Furthermore, a fragmented Myanmar could lead to prolonged instability, making regional security even more precarious for Bangladesh.
The international community has largely remained passive in addressing Myanmar’s crisis, contributing to a continued erosion of international norms. While global powers have expressed concerns, there has been little concrete action to stop the violence or hold Myanmar accountable. This lack of intervention has allowed the junta to persist in its authoritarian rule, worsening the humanitarian crisis. Bangladesh must proactively engage with regional and international stakeholders to ensure that Myanmar’s internal shifts do not compromise regional stability. While India and the U.S. have their respective interests in Myanmar—with India focusing on border security and economic projects, and the U.S. promoting democracy—Bangladesh’s priorities should remain clear: securing its borders, ensuring the safe return of Rohingya refugees, and preventing regional destabilization.
Myanmar’s crisis will persist, posing ongoing challenges for Bangladesh. The junta’s attempt to use elections to consolidate power is unlikely to bring stability. Beyond bilateral efforts, Bangladesh must adopt a multidimensional approach that includes diplomatic recalibration, enhanced border security, and stronger international advocacy for a solution to the Rohingya crisis. If Myanmar moves toward federalism, Bangladesh must strategically position itself to safeguard its national security, economic interests, and diplomatic leverage. Without a clear and proactive strategy, Myanmar will remain a source of regional instability, with Bangladesh bearing the brunt of its consequences.
